Many colleagues will have seen President Hugh Brady’s all-staff email this afternoon. It is important we address it openly and accurately. The timing is itself noteworthy. Messages like this are not sent when management believe they can simply ignore an issue. They are sent when pressure is rising and concerns are being raised internally. Our action is having visible impact — this response demonstrates it.
Below, we unpick the key claims.
1. The 4.5% increase in salary costs is fully explained by normal, predictable factors
The President cites a 4.5% increase in salary costs. This is entirely accounted for by:
-
the imposed 2% pay settlement,
-
a 1.6% increase in staffing, and
-
the portion of the 1.2% NI rise that falls into this year.
His reference to increments and other routine salary movements is misdirection: these happen every year and do not meaningfully change the pay bill.
2. His email inadvertently confirms a major increase in overseas student numbers — and therefore resources
The email also unintentionally reveals that the College is expecting a very large increase in overseas student numbers, the largest in many years. This directly contradicts earlier claims that overseas enrolments could collapse and destabilise the College’s finances.
A large rise in students brings two consequences:
-
workloads that far exceed the 1.6% increase in staffing, and
-
a very substantial increase in fee income.
The President estimates the levy cost will be £12m. At £925 per student (after the first 220 exempt), this corresponds to 12,700–13,700 overseas students, compared with just over 12,000 last year.
3. Management used incompatible financial scenarios during negotiations
During negotiations we were repeatedly warned that there was a risk of a fall in overseas enrolment due to geopolitical and market factors. That risk was real — no one disputes that. However, the College presented it as if a sharp downturn were the most likely scenario, when they were simultaneously relying on internal modelling that assumed a substantial increase in overseas numbers to generate their projected £27m levy cost.
In other words, management were advancing two incompatible scenarios to justify financial risk:
-
a scenario of rising overseas numbers (to produce a large notional £27m levy cost), and
-
a scenario of falling overseas numbers (to argue pay rises were unaffordable).
Both scenarios cannot underpin the same argument at the same time. The issue is not whether risk existed — it is the inconsistency with which that risk was deployed.
4. Actual 2025 enrolment figures now show strong growth far above College’s own targets
We now have the College’s own dashboard data for 2025 enrolment (finalised in December, with only minor expected changes):
-
13,322 overseas students — over 10% growth, the largest rise since the pandemic
-
11,264 home students — first increase in five years
-
Total students up 6% — well above the 3.5% growth target cited during negotiations
5. What this means financially
Using conservative assumptions, we estimate:
-
fees have risen by around 50% over five years, and
-
by ~14% in the past year, roughly £70m new income.
Yet College proposes to offer staff only ~£13m, amounting to a real-terms pay cut.
Meanwhile workloads are rising sharply. A 1.6% staffing increase cannot absorb a 6% increase in students. Teaching quality will inevitably be affected.
6. Benchmarkgate: the credibility problems remain unresolved
We are surprised the President chose to highlight “flaws” in the benchmarks, because even the “corrected” figures remain deeply compromised:
-
impossible quartile relationships,
-
internal inconsistencies,
-
and explanations that rely on misunderstandings of basic statistics
(e.g. claiming that “a few” outliers could shift a quartile — which is impossible).
The President’s reference to a “median-to-upper-quartile pay principle” is also a misrepresentation of the 2018 Pay & Benefits Review. No such principle exists in it.
Rather than inviting unions to a review in 2026, leadership needs to acknowledge the present failures and provide validated data now. This year’s pay settlement relied on a dataset that senior management now concede was flawed.
7. The cracks in management’s position are widening
Across the term we have seen:
-
miscalculated benchmarks,
-
failures of governance in rewriting pay principles,
-
incompatible financial narratives used in negotiations,
-
and now a large, welcome surge in overseas enrolments which shows clearly that resources are available.
It is clear the College can afford a fair settlement.
8. The next two weeks will be decisive
We now enter two weeks of targeted, strategic teaching-only action. This is designed to apply pressure at the moment management care most about teaching delivery.
If we maintain unity and determination, we can secure a fair and sustainable settlement based on evidence, transparency and respect.
The alternative — accepting a real-terms pay cut and heavier workloads at a moment when it is now undeniable that the College has the resources to support staff properly — is simply not an option.
